The 2025 Formula 1 season is coming down to the wire! For the first time since 2021, the Drivers’ Championship will be decided in the final race, the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. Three drivers from two teams McLaren’s Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, and Red Bull’s Max Verstappen are mathematically in the running, making for one seriously tense showdown at the Yas Marina Circuit.
While Lando Norris holds the healthiest lead, our Australian contender, Oscar Piastri, is far from out of the fight. The young Melbourne native, sitting in third place, needs a dash of brilliance, a sprinkle of luck, and a whole lot of chaos to snatch the title. Let’s break down the rollercoaster scenarios that could see Piastri become the first Aussie F1 World Champion in 45 years.
The Starting Grid for the Title Fight
Heading into the final Grand Prix, here’s where the contenders stand:
| Driver | Team | Points | Deficit to Leader (Norris) |
| Lando Norris (GBR) | McLaren | 408 | – |
| Max Verstappen (NED) | Red Bull | 396 | 12 points |
| Oscar Piastri (AUS) | McLaren | 392 | 16 points |
A maximum of 25 points is available for the winner of the race.
Crucially, all three drivers are locked on seven wins apiece for the season. If they finish the year tied on points, the champion is decided by the number of second-place finishes. In that count-back, Norris has the advantage with eight, while Verstappen has six, and Piastri has four. This tie-breaker edge is vital for Norris, making it incredibly tough for Piastri to win on a count-back.
The Piastri Scenarios: Win or Bust
For Piastri to leapfrog both his teammate and the four-time reigning champion, he absolutely must finish on the podium, and realistically, he needs to be on the top step. A third-place finish is simply not enough.
Scenario 1: Oscar Wins the Race (25 Points)
This is the big one. If Piastri takes the chequered flag, he adds 25 points to his tally, taking him to 417. To win the championship, he then needs his rivals to finish as follows:
- Lando Norris must finish 6th or lower (6th place gives Norris 8 points, tying him with Piastri on 416, but Piastri wins the tie-breaker with more race wins, The problem is with the tie-breaker rule as all have 7 wins. Piastri must finish first with Norris P6 (408 + 8 = 416 points). Piastri will have 417 points. So Norris must be P7 or lower to be defeated on points, or P6 to be defeated on the count-back so really He needs Norris to finish 7th or lower.
- Max Verstappen must finish 2nd or lower. If Piastri wins, he will be ahead of Verstappen regardless of where Max finishes, as his starting deficit is only 4 points. Verstappen finishing 2nd (18 points) would give him 414 total, which Piastri beats with 417.
Key Takeaway: Piastri wins the title with a Victory if Norris is 7th or worse.
Scenario 2: Oscar Finishes Second (18 Points)
If Piastri finishes in P2, he moves to 410 points. To win, the required chaos dramatically increases:
- Lando Norris must finish 10th or lower (10th place gives Norris 1 point, total 409).
- Max Verstappen must finish 4th or lower (4th place gives Verstappen 12 points, total 408).
Key Takeaway: A Second Place only works if Norris is outside the points and Verstappen is 4th or worse.
The F1 History Factor
While the numbers look daunting, history offers Piastri a glimmer of hope. The last two times an F1 championship was decided with three or more drivers in contention heading into the final race (2007 and 2010), it was the driver who was running third in the standings who ultimately snatched the title!
In 2010, at this very same track, Sebastian Vettel was 15 points behind leader Fernando Alonso but won the race and, thanks to some bizarre strategy calls from the other teams, took his first championship. Piastri enters 16 points back, a similarly large margin.
It’s a long shot, yes. Piastri has to perform an incredible feat and then rely on misfortunes for two of the best drivers on the grid. But F1 loves drama, and in a season that has already served up seven wins for all three contenders, expecting the unexpected in Abu Dhabi is probably the smartest strategy of all. Will the chaos machine be kind to our Aussie hero? Tune in to KAYO Sunday night to find out!
State/Territory Time Zone Race Start Time
NSW, VIC, TAS, ACT Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT) 12:00 AM (Midnight) Monday
QLD Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST) 11:00 PM Sunday
SA Australian Central Daylight Time (ACDT) 11:30 PM Sunday
NT Australian Central Standard Time (ACST) 10:30 PM Sunday
WA Australian Western Standard Time (AWST) 9:00 PM Sunday
